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House prices to fall 5% this year, 3% in 2024: ABN Amro

ABN Amro economists expect the number of people buying and selling houses to continue to fall in 2024, despite the recent uptick in prices.

The number of sales fell 7% in the 12 months to the end of May and the prospects for the future are “anything but favorable” the bank said in its latest housing market monitor.

The bank says the downturn in new build properties coming on the market will have an impact on the number of people moving from an older to a new property, and that means a further slowdown in the number of sales.


Several housing projects have been cancelled because not enough people have signed up in advance to buy them. Developers often require 70% of a project to be sold in advance before work can start.


The bank’s economists also say the recent 2.8% quarter-on-quarter house prices rise was due to an increase in the sale of more expensive properties. It expects house prices to fall 5% this year and 3% in 2024, a slightly better performance than in earlier forecasts.


Older homes in particular have been hit by lower prices, which maybe linked to having lower energy labels, the bank said. It expects energy labels to have further impact if the rules change and banks can lend more to people with energy-efficient homes.


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